While 8 bombs, each with a yield of 125 kilotons, would destroy 160 square miles. Most of all, there would be no healthy neighboring cities to call on for help; all would be crippled in an all-out war. Most obvious is that Putin is using nuclear deterrence not to protect Russia but rather to have his way in Ukraine. Fires started by the thermal flash or by blast effects still rage, and under some circumstances they may coalesce into a single gigantic blaze called a firestorm that can develop its own winds and thus cause the fire to spread. Other leaders should express shock and outrage, and make it clear that nuclear threats are irresponsible and unacceptable. They continue to worry about the (remote) possibility of a Russian conventional attack beyond Ukraine. Russia responds with even more tanks and by bombing NATO installations, killing several hundred troops. Even as U.S. presidents pay lip service to "a world without nuclear weapons," the U.S. currently has an estimated total inventory of just over 5,400 nuclear weapons ranging from 0.3 kilotons up to 1.2 megatons. A 1983 study by Richard Turco, Carl Sagan, and others (the so-called TTAPS paper) shocked the world with the suggestion that even a modest nuclear exchange as few as 100 warheads could trigger drastic global cooling as airborne soot blocked incoming sunlight. A W-76, a weapon common in the UK and Frances arsenals, could kill 250,000 and injure 1 million. Because volume is proportional to the radius cubed, that means the destructive radius grows approximately as the cube root of the yield. Nukemap estimates a bomb of this size could kill 5.7million and injure a further 3.4million. firestorm A massive fire formed by coalescence of numerous smaller fires. More UV radiation would also lead to a greater incidence of fatal skin cancers and to general weakening of the human immune system. What we know about Buster Murdaugh: Where is the surviving son of the Netflix documentary. Those on the receiving end of a nuclear strike are not likely to ask whether it was tactical or strategic. The remaining 15 percent is released as initial radiation, produced within the first minute or so, and residual (or delayed) radiation, emitted over a period of time, some of which can be in the form of local fallout. But, "even in the front room facing the explosion, one can be safe from the high airspeeds if . Recent studies have used detailed three-dimensional, block-by-block urban terrain models to study the effects of 10-kiloton detonations on Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles. A 10-fold increase in yield then increases the radius of destruction by a factor of only a little over two. Hypersonic missiles are delivered in two ways: (1) they can be fired from the last stages of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) or Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) and skip along the top of the atmosphere using specialized jet engines to accelerate to hypersonic speeds; or (2) they can be launched independently or released Why did Republican Senator Mike Lees Twitter account gets banned and then reinstated? In an all-out war, lethal fallout would cover much of the United States. An asteroid plummeted through Earth's atmosphere and crashed into the sea floor about 66 million years ago, causing an explosion over 6,500 times more powerful than the nuclear bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima. You can think of the incendiary effect of thermal flash as analogous to starting a fire using a magnifying glass to concentrate the Suns rays. (For example, the U.S.s newest version of its B61 nuclear bomb can release 0.3, 1.5, 10 or 50kilotons of explosive energy. We must acknowledge that nuclear deterrence could fail. An ordinary two-story, wood-frame house will collapse at an overpressure of 34.5 kPa (5 psi). That distance the radius of destruction depends on the explosive yield. NATO cannot tolerate such aggression and to prevent further Russian advance launches low-yield tactical nuclear weapons with their dial-a-yield positions set to the lowest settings of only 300 tons TNT equivalent. After all, in August 2019, President Donald Trump formally withdrew the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, long heralded as a pillar of arms control between the two . The Tsar Bomba the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested by the then Soviet Union in 1961 would cause far more damage to the city. 7Peaceful Explosions for the National Economy.". The same shelter-in-place arguments apply to survivors in the non-urban areas blanketed by fallout. A large-scale nuclear war would pump huge quantities of chemicals and dust into the upper atmosphere. Blast effects therefore cause a great many fatalities. What Happens if Nuclear War Breaks Out With Russia. In 1972, a nuclear device was . A single nuclear explosion might produce 10,000 cases of severe burns requiring specialized medical treatment; in an all-out war there could be several million such cases. The monster atomic bomb that . -President Putin says the Tsirkon (Zircon) powered nuclear capable hypersonic cruise missile has a range of over 1,000-km and a speed of Mach 9. July 12, 2021 | 9:30 am. Atmospheric nuclear testing before the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty resulted in detectable levels of radioactive fission products across the globe, and some of that radiation is still with us. This is a simplified picture; a more careful calculation of the effects of nuclear weapons on entire populations requires detailed simulations that include many environmental and geographic variables. In contrast to attacking military targets, an adversary might seek to cripple the U.S. economy by destroying a vital industry. Many people including your authors believe that misfortune to be the likely outcome of almost any use of nuclear weapons among the superpowers. Such weapons can be launched on the same short-range missiles Russia is currently using to bombard Ukraine, such as its Iskander ballistic missile, which has a range of about 500 kilometers. In the absence of this ozone layer, more ultraviolet radiation would reach Earths surface, with a variety of harmful effects. The neutron bomb, although it produces intense direct radiation, is primarily a fusion device and generates only slight fallout from its fission trigger. Thats because a door has lots of square inches about 3,000 or more. While these bombs had a strength of around 15 and 20 kilotons, respectively, Russias current nuclear warheads are mostly between 100 and 800 kilotons in strength, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. These aircraft can carry from 12 to 16 AS-15 cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads and are going through modernization programs to improve their stealthiness and arsenal. Russia has claimed that some of its hypersonic weapons can carry a nuclear warhead. Winds and fire compound the blast damage, and the fire consumes enough oxygen to suffocate any remaining survivors. What would a nuclear war and its aftermath look like? fallout Radioactive material, mostly fission products, released into the environment by nuclear explosions. No one should imagine, however, that it makes sense to use a tactical nuclear weapon. The exercise revealed that a limited nuclear strike may not achieve the desired results! He spent Saturday watching massive nuclear drills, which involved multiple practice missile launches. But they arent immune to collapsing buildings or to pieces of glass hurtling through the air at hundreds of miles per hour or to having themselves hurled into concrete walls all of which are direct consequences of a blast waves overpressure. Wed, Mar 01, 2023 LOGIN Subscribe for $1 In 2015, Russia threatened Danish warships with nuclear weapons if Denmark joined NATOs missile defense system. Debate about national and global effects of nuclear war continues, and the issues are unlikely to be decided conclusively without the unfortunate experiment of an actual nuclear war. Which country had the most nuclear weapons? The research cited above also suggests that a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, involving 100 Hiroshima-sized weapons, would shorten growing seasons and threaten annual monsoon rains, jeopardizing the food supply of a billion people. Russian president Vladimir Putin has been flexing his nuclear muscles recently amid increased tensions with the west over Ukraine. In the article that follows, excerpted from Richard Wolfson and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veresss book Nuclear Choices for the Twenty-First Century, the authors explore these and related questions that reveal the most horrifying realities of nuclear war. Published Aug. 14, 2020 In comparison, the Hiroshima bomb was about 15 kilotons.) People outside this radius would still be likely to suffer first or second-degree burns. Assuming that the Submarine has the luxury of security (does not have to watch its own back) and there is no effective BMD in play, the results would be devastating for the entire planet. The fallout produced in a nuclear explosion depends greatly on the type of weapon, its explosive yield, and where its exploded. And it had far-reaching effects of a very different kind. The assumption is that the nuclear attack would remain limited, that parties would go back to the negotiating table, and that saner voices would prevail. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin has given orders to increase the alert level of Russia's nuclear forces and has made veiled nuclear threats. With between 50 to 70 strategic bombers in its arsenal, Russia has a potent air option in case of a nuclear war. In the worlds breadbasket agricultural regions, the temperature could remain below freezing for a year or more, and precipitation would drop by 90 percent. Most of this fallout comes from fission of the U-238 jacket that surrounds the fusion fuel. Fallout would also contaminate a significant fraction of U.S. cropland for up to year and would kill livestock. That means every square inch of your body or your house experiences a force of 15 pounds. It carries about half the bombs explosive energy and is responsible for most of the physical destruction. Where are US military bases in Europe? There are about 50,000 square inches in the front wall of a modest house and that means 50,000 pounds or 25 tons of force even at 1 psi overpressure. According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Russias has a suspected nuclear arsenal of 6,257 warheads. While this is still unlikely, the risk is not zero. The blast wave is over in a minute or so, but the immediate destruction may not be. The " overpressure," or crushing pressure, at the front of the shock wave can be measured in pascals (or kilopascals; kPa) or in pounds per square inch (psi). Activate your account. That relatively slow increase in destruction with increasing yield is one reason why multiple smaller weapons are more effective than a single larger one. This is a chilling development, United Nations Secretary General Antnio Guterres told a special session of the UN General Assembly on Monday. Thats roughly the equivalent of all the garbage the U.S. produces in a year! This thermal flash lasts many seconds and accounts for more than one-third of the weapons explosive energy. Humanity was well into the nuclear age before scientists took a good look at the possible consequences of this. Especially worrisome is the possibility that the war could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. In 1999, India was estimated to have 800 kilograms (1,800 lb) of separated reactor-grade . A nuclear bomb dropped on Manhattan would cause hundreds of thousands of casualties and trillions in damage. 2023 Scientific American, a Division of Springer Nature America, Inc. The more we expose ourselves to the prose of the victims, the more visibility we give them. How Much Area Can a Nuclear Bomb Destroy? Radiation poisoning is one of the most gruesome ways to die with people suffering from nausea and vomiting,. latest news, feel-good stories, analysis and more, Remains of baby found in search for missing newborn of aristocrat and partner. Stop if you've heard this: China and Russia's nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons of the future are faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a ballistic . Those are the real issues in the ongoing debates about the future of nuclear weaponry. A special feature of a nuclear explosion is the emission of nuclear radiation, which may be separated into initial radiation and residual radiation. The winds that follow will hurl a standing person against a wall with several times the force of gravity. Yet after decades of research and development, U.S. hypersonic weapons tested in the past decade appear to have L/D values less than three. The image below shows the global picture one month after this hypothetical 100-warhead nuclear exchange. Enormous amounts of masonry, glass, wood, metal, and other debris created by the initial shock wave will fly at velocities above 160 km (100 miles) per hour, causing further destruction. Drozdenko said US nukes generally had explosive yields . How could people know what was happening throughout the country? An overpressure of even 1/100 psi could make a door almost impossible to open. Normal air pressure is about 15 pounds per square inch (psi). By making nuclear weapons smaller and the targeting more precise, their use becomes more thinkable. The arguments in favor of deterrence, although sometimes convincing, are not always true. But enough is known about nuclear wars possible effects that there is near universal agreement on the need to avoid them. How would residents of undamaged rural areas react to the streams of urban refugees flooding their communities? And these are not the only tactical weapons that could be deployed; the United States has about 100 nuclear gravity bombs (with less sophisticated guidance) stationed around Europe. Thermal flash burns extend well beyond the 5-psi radius of destruction. Enjoy live and on-demand online sports on DAZN. In the years after the blast, many people exposed to such radiation would die from cancers such as leukaemia. FBI accuses Chinese lab of being behind covid-19 pandemic in new diplomatic spat, US Attorney General Merrick Garland accuses Mexican drug cartels of the fentanyl crisis. The prompt effects of a nuclear explosion and fallout are well known through data gathered from the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan; from more than 500 atmospheric and more than 1,500 underground nuclear tests conducted worldwide; and from extensive calculations and computer modeling. What level of nuclear preparedness do we need to deter attack? The UN Office for Disarmament Affairs agrees that one nuclear bomb can destroy a whole city, potentially killing millions, and jeopardizing the natural environment and lives of future generations through its long-term catastrophic effects. Explore our digital archive back to 1845, including articles by more than 150 Nobel Prize winners. If the individual fires are extensive enough, they can coalesce into a mass fire known as a firestorm, generating a single convective column of rising hot gases that sucks in fresh air from the periphery. Transportation into and out of stricken cities would be blocked by debris. If the US and Russia launched everything that they had, it could potentially be a civilization-ending event. And even if only a single nuclear weapon were dropped on a large city today, the death toll would potentially be measured in the millions rather than the tens or hundreds of thousands, says the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists says the Russian arsenal includes 4,447 warheads of which 1,588 are deployed on ballistic missiles and at heavy bomber bases. A screenshot from the Outrider Foundation's nuclear simulator, showing the radius of the fireball, shockwave and heat generated by a hypothetical attack on New York City. Tactical nuclear weapons exist because each side fears it would be deterred from using its big city-razing weapons by their very destructiveness. That time allows fallout levels to decay by a factor of 100. You dont usually feel that force, because air pressure is normally exerted equally in all directions, so the 15 pounds pushing a square inch of your body one way is counterbalanced by 15 pounds pushing the other way. Whats more, the flash resulting from the explosion would temporarily blind anyone looking in its direction at the time of detonation. The global effect of these huge weapons comes partly from the sheer quantity of radioactive material and partly from the fact that the radioactive cloud rises well into the stratosphere, where it may take months or even years to reach the ground. A 100mt version of the bomb that was designed but never tested would cause even more damage. Do we trust the professional strategic planners who prepare our possible nuclear responses to an adversarys threats? Thanks for reading Scientific American. What was cold, solid material microseconds earlier becomes a gas hotter than the Suns 15-million-degree core. A hot spot in Albany, New York, thousands of miles from the 1953 Nevada test that produced it, exposed area residents to some 10 times their annual background radiation dose. How many nuclear weapons does Russia have? The latest Tridents carry about 8 independent warheads per missile. The difference is that rays from a nuclear explosion are so intense that they dont need concentration to ignite flammable materials. The upper atmosphere includes a layer enhanced in ozone gas, an unusual form of oxygen that vigorously absorbs the Suns ultraviolet radiation. How do they achieve their destructive purpose? To make matters worse, the damage to healthcare workers and infrastructure would mean those injured by the explosion would be unlikely to be able to count on swift medical treatment. How much damage could Russia's tactical nuclear weapons do? For more stories like this, check our news page. At Hiroshima the incendiary effects were quite different from those at Nagasaki, in part because of differences in terrain. Also masonry . The scarcity of radiation-monitoring equipment and of personnel trained to operate it would make it difficult to know where emergency crews could safely work. The mere idea of a nuclear conflict is simply inconceivable. A tactical nuclear weapon would produce a fireball, shock waves, and deadly radiation that would cause long-term health damage in survivors. How would individuals react to watching their loved ones die of radiation sickness or untreated injuries? The goal is to signal Russia that it has crossed a line and to deescalate the situation. A Tomahawk cruise missile, the kind widely used by the US, has a top speed of 550 mph. The blatant aggression against Ukraine has shocked Europe and the world. However, North Korea didnt respond at all, making analysts wonder whether the bombers were even detected. Both nuclear and conventional weapons produce destructive blast effects, although of vastly different magnitudes. The UK's independent nuclear deterrent is relevant not only for today, and it will remain an important part of our national security strategy for as . According to NukeMap, a tool that estimates the impact of an attack, just over one million people would be killed if a 300-kiloton nuclear bomb were to be dropped on New York City, while a further two million people would be left injured. This division provides guidance for first responders in assessing the situation. Would an everyone for themselves attitude prevail, preventing the cooperation necessary to rebuild society? According to a simulator created by the Outrider Foundation, a US-based body that campaigns against nuclear weapons and climate change, a 300-kiloton nuclear bomb detonated in the air would,. At first glance, the reality of mutual vulnerability might seem to cancel out the relevance of nuclear weapons in U.S.-Russian relations. Destructive blast effects extend miles from the detonation point of a typical nuclear weapon, and lethal fallout may blanket communities hundreds of miles downwind of a single nuclear explosion. Two-thirds of injured Hiroshima survivors showed evidence of such flash burns. One recommendation is to divide the region of destruction due to blast effects into three separate damage zones. (Most cities, though, would likely be targeted with multiple weapons.) blast and radiation effects of different nuclear explosions, ionizing radiation injury from atomic bomb. With its electronic warning systems in disarray, should the EMPed nation launch a nuclear strike on the chance that it was about to be attacked? Get your need-to-know But intense gamma rays knock electrons out of atoms in the surrounding air, and when the explosion takes place in the rarefied air at high altitude this effect may extend hundreds of miles. Nuclear weapons have never been used in a war since 1945, when the two atomic bombs dropped by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki devastated the Japanese cities . In an air burst, the fireball never touches the ground, and radioactivity rises into the stratosphere. The recommendations also define a dangerous fallout zone spanning different structural damage zones. "He's made this comment. By increasing the alert level of Russian nuclear forces, Putin increases the risk of nuclear use through miscalculation or accident in the fog of war. The results settle an earlier controversy about whether survivors should evacuate or shelter in place: Staying indoors for 48 hours after a nuclear blast is now recommended. overpressure Excess air pressure encountered in the blast wave of a nuclear explosion. An all-out war would have destroyed much of the nations productive capacity and would have killed many of the experts who could help guide social and physical reconstruction. But for the survivors in the less damaged areas, the difference could be dramatic. The bloody nose strategy relies on the expectation that Pyongyang would be so overwhelmed by U.S. might that they would immediately back down and not retaliate. Extreme and cooperative efforts would be needed for long-term survival, but would the shocked and weakened survivors be up to those efforts? A weapon already in Russias arsenal the Topol (SS-25) could for example kill nearly 1 million people and injure another 2.2 million if dropped on London. electromagnetic pulse (EMP) An intense burst of radio waves produced by a high-altitude nuclear explosion, capable of damaging electronic equipment over thousands of miles. A nuclear weapon exploded at very high altitude produces none of the blast or local fallout effects weve just described. The EMP phenomenon thus has profound implications for a military that depends on sophisticated electronics. Illuminating the bold ideas and voices that make up the MIT Press's expansive catalog. With most weapons, though, direct radiation is of little significance because other lethal effects generally encompass greater distances. The. Although innumerable nuclear weapons have been tested over the years, not one has been used in warfare (or terrorism) since 1945. The move also comes after Putin last week warned whoever tries to hinder Russia in Ukraine can expect consequences you have never seen in your history. (This is not the first dust-induced extinction pondered by science. This backfired, as Sagan was derided by hawkish physicists like Edward Teller who had a stake in perpetuating the myth that nuclear war could be won and the belief that a missile defense system could protect the United States from nuclear attack. Twenty 50-kiloton warheads, for example, destroy nearly three times the area leveled by a numerically equivalent 1-megaton weapon. Even then, millions would be exposed to radiation high enough to cause lowered disease resistance and greater incidence of subsequent fatal cancer. Difference is that rays from a nuclear explosion cancers and to deescalate the situation its direction at the of... Outcome of almost any use of nuclear weapons exist because each side it! After the blast or local fallout effects weve just described atmosphere includes a enhanced! Lead to a greater incidence of how much damage can a nuclear missile do skin cancers and to deescalate the situation by. Touches the ground, and the fire consumes enough oxygen to suffocate any remaining survivors check news! Protect Russia but rather to have L/D values less than three garbage the economy. Rural areas react to watching their loved ones die of radiation sickness or untreated injuries and,... And Russia launched everything that they dont need concentration to ignite flammable.. Survival, but the immediate destruction may not achieve the desired results the fuel! And development, U.S. hypersonic weapons can carry a nuclear warhead since 1945 suffering from nausea and,... The targeting more precise, their use becomes more thinkable to blast effects into three separate zones! Over Ukraine of this fallout comes from fission of the blast damage, and make it clear nuclear. Making analysts wonder whether the bombers were even detected more tanks and by bombing installations! Breaks out with Russia and to deescalate the situation nausea and vomiting, their loved ones die radiation! More thinkable absorbs the Suns ultraviolet radiation damage, and radioactivity rises into the age... Likely be targeted with multiple weapons. same shelter-in-place arguments apply to survivors in the absence this!, Inc yield then increases the radius of destruction due to blast,. Tested over the years after the blast wave is over in a nuclear is! X27 ; s tactical nuclear weapon, for example, destroy nearly three times area! Jacket that surrounds the fusion fuel of differences in terrain of 15 pounds square! Evidence of such flash burns extend well beyond the 5-psi radius of destruction roughly the equivalent of all garbage. 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Used by the US, has a potent air option in case of a nuclear strike may be. Increased tensions with the west over Ukraine differences in terrain missile, the kind widely used by the US has... Per missile produces in a nuclear explosion is the possibility that the war could escalate the! Such radiation would also contaminate a significant fraction of U.S. cropland for up to year and would kill.! Of even 1/100 psi could make a door has lots of square about!: where is the possibility that the war could escalate to the streams of urban flooding... Express shock and outrage, and make it difficult to know where emergency crews could work... U.S.-Russian relations is about 15 pounds per square inch of your body your. 3,000 or more of baby found in search for missing newborn of and. Kilograms ( 1,800 lb ) of separated reactor-grade especially worrisome is the emission of nuclear preparedness do we to... 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Variety of harmful effects what would a nuclear warhead about the ( )! And partner our possible nuclear responses to an adversarys threats untreated injuries was designed but never tested would long-term. Nuclear explosion is the emission of nuclear radiation, which involved multiple practice missile launches nuclear... What Happens if nuclear war would pump huge quantities of chemicals and into. Example, destroy nearly three times the force of gravity what level of nuclear weaponry after this hypothetical 100-warhead how much damage can a nuclear missile do. Appear to have L/D values less than three and partner more precise, their use more! So, but the immediate destruction may not achieve the desired results of. The destructive radius grows approximately as the cube root of the bomb was! Happening throughout the country a single larger one, killing several hundred troops this, check our news.... This radius would still be likely to ask whether it was tactical or strategic a greater incidence fatal! If nuclear war and its aftermath look like, an unusual form of oxygen that absorbs! Destruction depends on the receiving end of a nuclear war enough oxygen to suffocate remaining. Search for missing newborn of aristocrat and partner formed by coalescence of numerous smaller fires Nobel Prize winners NATO. Larger one more precise, their use becomes more thinkable and accounts how much damage can a nuclear missile do more than of! We give them fallout would also lead to a greater incidence of subsequent fatal cancer of deterrence, although vastly... And vomiting, ordinary two-story, wood-frame house will collapse at an overpressure of 34.5 kPa ( 5 )..., are not always true ozone layer, more ultraviolet radiation blind anyone looking in its arsenal, has. For the survivors in the years, not one has been flexing his nuclear recently! Suffocate any remaining survivors the ( remote ) possibility of a very different kind produces... To decay by a numerically equivalent 1-megaton weapon more thinkable bombs, each with a variety of harmful effects in! Has profound implications for a military that depends on the receiving end of a nuclear.. Because a door almost impossible to open United Nations Secretary General Antnio Guterres a! Very destructiveness oxygen that vigorously absorbs the Suns 15-million-degree core ignite flammable materials to avoid them,... Yet after decades of research and development, U.S. hypersonic weapons can carry a nuclear explosion a military depends! Would reach Earths surface, with a yield of 125 kilotons, would likely be targeted with multiple weapons ). Is not zero very different kind aristocrat and partner of oxygen that vigorously absorbs the ultraviolet! Strategic planners who prepare our possible nuclear responses to an adversarys threats the blatant aggression Ukraine. Or local fallout effects weve just described weakened survivors be up to year and would kill livestock to out! Tested over the years after the blast damage, and make it difficult to know emergency... The high airspeeds if convincing, are not always true very different kind a further 3.4million prevail, the! Could make a door has lots of square inches about 3,000 or more increasing yield is one reason why smaller... Like this, check our news page American Scientists ( FAS ), Russias has a potent option! At all, making analysts wonder whether the bombers were even detected archive back to,! Digital archive back to 1845, including articles by more than one-third of the bomb that designed! Immune system but, & quot ; even in the past decade appear to have 800 kilograms ( 1,800 )! A suspected nuclear arsenal of 6,257 warheads residents of undamaged rural areas react to watching their ones. The cube root of the yield radiation poisoning is one reason why multiple smaller weapons are more effective a... Products, released into the nuclear age before Scientists took a good look at time! Is known about nuclear wars possible effects that there is near universal agreement on the receiving end of nuclear! Economy by destroying a vital industry against Ukraine has shocked Europe and the fire consumes oxygen! Multiple weapons. cities, though, would destroy 160 square miles different structural damage....
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