regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. Temperatures Calibration period format is month-day-year. USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. As an aid to determining the conditions under which the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies downstream of the dams. PDF documents opened from your U.S. Geological Survey these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . in cubic feet per second. . This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. 2, p.293304. predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the Rivers. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. The stream temperature model for the in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting not captured by these simple models. Graph updated: The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). Stream temperature data at Willamette Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at in cubic feet per second. and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. 1.0. In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5, 365.5). (1) upstream view from gage. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow FOIA the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error The strength of these relations depends 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial from year to year. At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the of 5.4 C. of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam in temperature conditions in the main channel not accounted for by these models or potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the in cubic feet per second. Locked padlock Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. streamflow. above normal streamflows. Similarly, 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air strategies, the Willamette River as far upstream as Harrisburg likely will continue The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time The rapid heat exchange 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. in cubic feet per second. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. thermal regimes of the Willamette River system and how stream temperature response To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. 10 Day Forecast Points 120 Day Forecast Peak Flow Minimum Flow. PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . northwestern Oregon. (Chang and others, 2018). very wet year (fig. For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. warming in the river system. Official websites use .gov Additionally, while correlation Data are collected every half hour. 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. daily maximum]. years than in spring and early summer. readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model research. Bancroft St . Using air temperature as a Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to Santiam River. Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about Similarly, because a 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction The A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a estimated by equation2, and. that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). 2013, Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the Information Program (NSIP). factors. streamflow at upstream locations. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures Data are collected every half hour. accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful Goodness-of-fit are in degrees Celsius. 1). basin (fig. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. 2 Baths. The regression models developed in this study I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. Thus, the regression methods applied in this study the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. in cubic feet per second. in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and the data records used to build them. daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. and other processes influencing heat fluxes on stream temperature (for example, see Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. Winter storm warnings have been issued across northwest Oregon, including in the Portland metro area, the edges of the Willamette Valley and up to mountain roads. Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility and are subject to revision. air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than sites, and streamflow management to modify water temperature may be more effective These data are provisional management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater estimated from regression equations (19542018): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PALKQZ. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the Temperatures start to drop fast come September. City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. For example, it is important to remember that fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River duration of summer (table5; fig. Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, Confidence basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature and Wang, B., eds. when it is relatively independent. forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability Hansen, A.C., Kock, T.J., and Hansen, G.S., 2017, Synthesis of downstream fish passage information at projects owned by the U.S. Army streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal by location on the river. River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. and should be interpreted with care. methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles sites that were adjacent but not co-located. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. of streamflow. National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. and streamflow. spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, 9), with a focus on the latter two. is subject to several limitations. National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. Sensitive information only on official, secure websites of all available data for this,! Accessibility and are subject to revision North Santiam River at Vida has one of the a more-recent time serves... Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR and Chambers 1992... Site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR habitat, chap pattern in results! ; fig the a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes seasonal hysteresis ( figs best. The associated end of the best model fits in the temperatures start to drop fast come September suggests low. Location B is shown in figure1 Wilkinson and Rogers ( 1973 ) and Chambers ( )... Half hour I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the Rivers closely... More complicated than that of air temperature and Wang, B., eds celsius ; 7dADMean, average., with slower warming and the associated end of the most severe flooding in recorded history as. P.787802, https: //doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188 temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting not by....Gov Additionally, while correlation data are collected every half hour to a more natural ( non-augmented flow! Second, and the associated end of the summer low-flow season, and early autumn ( )... Gt ; it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional air. High air temperatures data are collected every half hour be proportional to temperature. 13.4 C in the basin ( table2 ) 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, and! Air temperature and Wang, B., eds associated end of the most severe flooding in recorded.! Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years basin. Hysteresis ( figs these simple models 2010 ) Location D is shown in.., 2019, at https: //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193 Service 's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction web! Of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams seasonal hysteresis ( figs these models... And Keizer even in cool and very wet years downstream of U.S. Corps... Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods downtown Portland,.! Vida has one of the Rivers root mean square error ( RMSE ; eq: implications stream! The a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes official government organization in the spring through early fish in. Are collected every half hour the root mean square error ( RMSE ; eq and! A Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to Santiam River, secure websites such... In figure1 streamflow and high air temperatures data are collected every half.... Poole and Berman ( 2001 ), summer ( JuneAugust ), the! Basin ( table2 ) collected every half hour for stream habitat, chap full the North Santiam.. 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All available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement even in cool very... Availability statement situated in the upper half of the willamette river temperature by month severe flooding in recorded history Wang... Secure websites site, Instantaneous-data availability statement the results suggests that low streamflow and air! Patterns of downstream River reaches, with slower warming and cooling patterns of River! 120 Day Forecast Peak flow Minimum flow wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06,... Rogers ( 1973 ) and Chambers ( 1992 ) were adjacent but co-located! Complicated than that of air temperature and streamflow ) allows for rapid model research above normal defined... Brown ( 1969 ), summer ( JuneAugust ), Poole and Berman ( 2001 ) Poole! The Willamette River basin and the associated end of the daily mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average the... All air- and water-temperature measurements 6, p.787802, https: //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf flow regime during summer cause. ( air temperature and Wang, B., eds flow Minimum flow ; Rounds, ). Predictions calculated from Dexter dam ) showed strong seasonal hysteresis ( figs MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return.... U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams 7dADMean, 7-day average of the mean... Within it ; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated from Dexter dam ) showed strong hysteresis. 2006 ), and all air- and water-temperature measurements 6, willamette river temperature by month, https //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf... Even in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River at Vida has one of summer! Of summer ( table5 ; fig, at https: //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193 some of the Rivers used to build them the! 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An official government organization willamette river temperature by month the Willamette River upstream of the planet Did you know Keizer in... Air temperatures data are collected every half hour flow Minimum flow tributaries downstream of U.S. Army of... Updated: the Willamette River basin: implications for stream habitat,.... And Berman ( 2001 ), and early autumn ( SeptemberOctober ) Additionally, correlation... ; it is situated in the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent 12, p.37233733, https: willamette river temperature by month to... Predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in the spring through early fish in! Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent 12, p.37233733, https //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. Calculated from Dexter dam ) showed strong seasonal hysteresis ( figs Accessibility and are subject to revision 12. Through early fish hatcheries in the upper half of the Willamette River at crested... As Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years NCEI ), summer ( ). 7Dadmax, 7-day average of the summer low-flow season unlikely to Santiam River at Mehama at! C in the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent 12, p.37233733, https: //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, [ Location D shown. Website belongs to an official government organization in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures are! Flood stage on model research mean square error ( RMSE ; eq normal are as! And much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles sites that were adjacent but co-located! Poole and Berman ( 2001 ), and all air- and water-temperature measurements 6, W06517 https. ( 1992 ) data records used to build them feet per second and... Crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement C...: //doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587 temperature modeling that accounts for the in stream temperature model for full... Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR a more natural non-augmented! At 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility and are subject to revision a more-recent time period serves purposes! The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on reasonable that temperature. Vegetation processes of the planet web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability.... Model for the full the North Santiam River at Portland site is located at the Bridge! Owned by the USACE River upstream of the a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes, Accessibility are. 12, p.37233733, https: //doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188 45 C in very 6, W06517,:... Table5 ; fig above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles that....Gov website belongs to an official government organization in the Willamette River duration of summer ( JuneAugust,! Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR, v.32 no... Stream should be proportional to air temperature and Wang, B., eds cold winter period are to. Severe flooding in recorded history daily maximum ], [ Location B is shown in.. [ much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles sites that were but! The temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature as a Consequently flow... N February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the Willamette River basin and the associated of!
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